Who’s Really Leading in the Polls – Obama or Romney?

i votesDunno if ya heard, but we're electing a president tomorrow. There's already been some early voting, and some early voting chaos at that, and everyone's been trying to predict who's got the edge in this oh so close race. Is Obama in the lead? Is Romney in the lead? And what about Roseanne Barr -- is girl getting any votes?

Folks, I've done the work so you don't have to. Here's who the latest polls, pundits, and political philosophers are predicting will bring home the big W tomorrow night.

Hold onto your butts ...

First we turn to the Gallup. The polls they've conducted up until October 29 show that, among registered voters, Obama and Romney are tied at 48 percent each. However, among voters who are likely to vote, the Gallup reports that Romney has a better shot than Obama with 51 percent, compared to the incumbnent's 46. If you like more esoteric polls with no real or proven historical value in predicting a winner, you might like the data that suggests Obama is ten points ahead of Romney in a favorability contest.

Next we head to the New York Times where their fivethirtyeight blog predicts Obama has an 86.3 percent chance of winning. They also say Obama's got 2 points on Romney when it comes to the popular vote, and 10 points on ole Mitt in regards to the electoral vote.

And CNN? Well, they're saying that Obama and Romney are locked in a dead heat at 49 percent. When it comes to who people like the most, looks like it's still pretty close -- 56 percent of people polled think Obama has the personal qualities it takes to be president, and 55 percent think Romney does, as well. 

Last but not least, who could forget Google and Facebook. The oh so official me-countie-the-headlines-on-the-Intewebbies poll finds that most news sources and blogs are reporting that Obama's got a slight lead over Romney ... and when it comes to the meaningless Facebook likes, Mitt's got 11.9 million and Obama has 31.7 million.

Oh, in case you were wondering, Ms. Barr's chances aren't looking too good. I couldn't find any poll results that listed her potential take home of the votes. Womp, womp.

No matter which way you slice it, it's a close race, but it's almost time to stop looking at the polls and start heading to the polls. Happy voting, everybody.

Who do you think is going to win tomorrow?


Photo via kvanhorn/Flickr


2012 election


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fleur... fleurdelys3110

Thank you thank you thank you for actually providing real coverage! I can always count on you to provide at least some real facts. What many of the polls that have Obama up by something like 6 points in swing state polls is that sampling included many more Democrats than Republicans. Biased polling agencies produce biased results, so they are not reliable. All of the non-partisan polls have mixed results, all of which are in the margin of error. We will not know who wins until the actual votes are counted. Exit polls aren't reliable either, remember Bush vs. Kerry? Exit polls in Florida and Ohio were wrong!

nonmember avatar Guest

Personally I think Romney is going to win, however, as far as predictions, the polling is so tight, it's anyone's guess.

Which begs the question, given the disaster of the last four years, how it it even close?

I fear for the future of our nation...

amazz... amazzonia

English bookmakers are already paying out Obama's victory, so that makes me feel much better :)

nonmember avatar Guest

@amazzonia; LINK?

Tendr... TendrelovinMaMa

Finger crossed these polls are right an Obama Is in the lead! Woot

Procr... Procrastamom

The media wants you to think it is closer than it is, so they can sell ad space.  Also, the polls aren't going to lean heavily in one direction, because if they're wrong they won't be seen as credible in the next election.  Romney has almost no chance of winning, unless maybe a secret illicit sex tape of the president is found between now and tomorrow.

@ammazonia - yes the bookmakers in the UK are already paying out on Obama.  Must be because they're many hours ahead of us and already know the future outcome!  (;wink, wink, sarcasm, wink)

nonmember avatar Guest

@Procrastamom, so, can you provide a link for this or are you lying yet again?

Edie Simmons

I agreeI have 1522 facebook friends and only 10 are voting for Mitt I see a slaughter I think Mitt had been buying Polls and how many Democrats have a landline phone to ask surveys on LOL

itsgrim itsgrim

LMAO at Procrastamom using the word "credible" without, apparently, bursting into flames.  As usual, she's clearly gazing into her Canadian Ball of Bullshit to check the policy and procedure of American pollsters. I'm sure she's taking a picture of it right now, so she can post it as her source.

Romney's got to win this. 


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